The Moment Common Knowledge Changed Last Call - With Andy Constan, Ben Hunt, Brent Kochuba and Eric Pachman

This episode of our new market wrap show Last Call breaks down the biggest market drivers right now through three distinct lenses: macro, narrative, and flows. With an oil shock driven by geopolitical conflict, rising volatility, and conflicting economic signals, the discussion focuses on what actually matters beneath the surface and how investors should think about positioning in an environment where nothing is clearly priced in. Follow Last Call on Spotify⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠Follow Last Call on Apple Podcasts⁠ Jack and Matt bring together Andy Constan, Ben Hunt, Brent Kochuba, and Eric Pachman to analyze the ripple effects of higher oil prices, the “common knowledge” shift in markets, the role of options flows in driving short-term moves, and why traditional economic indicators like unemployment may be telling a misleading story. Andy Constan Twitter Ben Hunt Twitter Brent Kochuba Twitter Eric Pachman Twitter Topics covered: How oil supply shocks impact GDP, inflation, and consumer spending Why higher oil prices act as a tax on the economy and shift growth dynamics The difference between supply shocks and demand shocks in energy markets Why central banks may be unable to respond to an oil-driven slowdown The “common knowledge” framework and how narratives reshape markets Why the Strait of Hormuz has become the key global economic bottleneck Oil exporters vs importers and how that divide is driving asset performance Why energy equities may outperform in a prolonged geopolitical conflict How volatility is being driven by oil prices and geopolitical risk The relationship between VIX and oil during crisis periods Why $100 oil could trigger a major volatility spike and equity selloff The JP Morgan collar trade and how options positioning can pin markets How dealer hedging flows influence short-term price action Why markets may appear disconnected from negative news The limits of predicting what is “priced in” during uncertain environments Why diversification matters more when macro visibility is low How unemployment data can mislead by excluding people leaving the workforce The difference between unemployment rate and labor force participation Structural decline in rural economies and the migration to urban centers How labor force trends explain the divergence in economic experiences across the US Timestamps: 00:00 Oil shock as a GDP tax on consumers 00:16 Strait of Hormuz as global economic chokepoint 00:29 Why $100 oil could send VIX to 50 00:39 Why unemployment rate may be misleading 01:07 What Last Call is and how the episode is structured 02:28 Macro, narrative, and flows framework for markets 03:44 How oil supply shocks impact growth and inflation 06:00 Why higher oil prices reduce discretionary spending 07:00 Oil’s impact on inflation and central bank policy 09:39 Scenario analysis for oil prices and market outcomes 12:28 Is the oil shock priced into markets? 16:00 Why oil vs assets may be mispriced 20:00 Ben Hunt on the “common knowledge” market shift 25:00 Why the Strait of Hormuz changes everything 29:00 Portfolio implications: long energy vs global equities 33:00 Brent Kochuba on oil, VIX, and market volatility linkage 36:00 Why $100 oil is the key risk threshold for equities 40:00 JP Morgan collar trade and market pinning dynamics 44:00 Why options flows can override macro narratives short term 52:00 Eric Pachman on unemployment vs labor force reality 59:00 Structural decline in labor force across US counties

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The Moment Common Knowledge Changed Last Call - With Andy Constan, Ben Hunt, Brent Kochuba and Eric Pachman is an episode from Excess Returns by Excess Returns.

This episode is 01:09:42 long.

This episode was published on Mar 28, 2026.

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