We Asked Ben Hunt, Jim Paulsen, Kevin Muir and Brent Kochuba Why Bad News Can’t Break This Market

This episode of Last Call breaks down one of the most confusing market environments in recent memory: why stocks continue to rise despite war, oil shocks, and growing macro risks. Through conversations with Jim Paulsen, Ben Hunt, Kevin Muir, and Brent Kochuba, we explore the tension between strong earnings, hidden risks in private credit and global growth, and the powerful role of flows and positioning in driving markets higher. Follow Last Call on Spotify⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠Follow Last Call on Apple Podcasts⁠ Topics Covered Why markets are ignoring war, oil shocks, and geopolitical risk The “supernova” risk in private credit and why it hasn’t hit markets yet How supply-driven inflation differs from 1970s-style demand inflation Why pessimistic sentiment may actually be supporting markets The role of earnings growth and valuation resets in fueling the rally Bull vs bear case for markets based on macro, earnings, and positioning Why free cash flow trends may be more concerning than earnings How options flows and dealer positioning are suppressing volatility The AI capex boom and its impact on market leadership and breadth The growing divide between Mag 7 earnings and the rest of the market Timestamps 00:00 Intro and market overview 01:37 Why markets are not falling despite negative news 03:00 Buy-the-dip behavior and earnings resilience 06:11 Ben Hunt on “supernova” risks in private credit 08:00 Hidden credit crunch in middle market companies 10:24 Why private credit matters for economic growth 14:10 Oil supply shocks and global growth risks 17:00 Why markets can ignore risks before they appear 18:48 Jim Paulsen on market resilience and sentiment 20:00 Why pessimism may reduce downside risk 22:24 Inflation vs labor force growth framework 24:00 Why current inflation is supply-driven, not demand-driven 26:00 Potential shift from inflation focus to growth focus 29:11 Kevin Muir on bull vs bear market setup 31:00 War impact on rates, oil, and positioning 33:00 Fed reaction and shifting rate expectations 35:00 Why earnings remain the dominant market driver 37:00 Why geopolitics often doesn’t move markets 40:00 Bear case: weak free cash flow and employment risk 44:26 Brent Kochuba on options flows and positioning 47:00 Why markets ignore rising rates and oil 49:00 Call buying, dispersion, and tech leadership 51:00 Energy as both hedge and AI-driven opportunity 54:00 Correlation, volatility, and market structure 56:00 Dealer positioning and suppressed volatility 58:00 Earnings strength and narrow market leadership 01:01:00 Free cash flow vs earnings debate 01:01:55 AI capex and long-term market implications

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We Asked Ben Hunt, Jim Paulsen, Kevin Muir and Brent Kochuba Why Bad News Can’t Break This Market is an episode from Excess Returns by Excess Returns.

This episode is 01:07:48 long.

This episode was published on May 1, 2026.

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