post hoc

Hello Everyone. My name is Hamidreza Ahmadi and this podcast is brought to you by Lingophoenix. In one of our previous podcasts, I talked about the Bandwagon effect and the Bandwagon fallacy which refer to the pursuit of something or an activity simply because it’s popular or trendy. I also discussed how it could be fallacious. If a lot of people are doing the same thing at the same time it doesn’t necessarily mean it’s right. For example, Jamal says a lot of people are buying a specific product, I think we should buy it, too. Well, there is no logical connection between the premise and the conclusion. If a large number of people start eating grass, I’m sure we probably would refuse to do so. In this podcast, I’m going to talk about the post hoc fallacy which, to be honest, a lot of us fall victim to. But before that, in these podcasts which discuss fallacies and rational thinking, I aim to emphasize the necessity of critical thinking. Critical thinking, to be brief, is the way of thinking that questions set beliefs, traditions, ways of thoughts, etc. and tries to find evidence and sound arguments before accepting them as true. The discovery of these fallacies is one of the fruits of critical thinking. Critical thinking helps us to prevent pitfalls in our reasoning, and rescues us from being deceived. Alright, about this podcast. post hoc fallacy, right! Actually the complete name of this fallacy is post hoc ergo propter hoc. Don’t let the name fool you! It might sound tough to decode, but it really isn’t. This latin phrase means after this, therefore, because of this. Let me set things in motion with an example, I used to work in an English institute some years ago, the manager there used to blame the teachers if there was a fall in the number of students who registered for the following term. The supposed reasons he held teachers accountable for were stuff like, poor performance, lack of energy, and basically whatever weapon he had in his arsenal to throw at the poor teachers. However, he can have been easily dead wrong. The funny thing is most teachers kind of accepted that it was actually their fault, now was it? Let’s dwell on this a little bit. What if some students were pregnant and their babies were due; What if a few of them immigrated? What if zaboonam lal, one student lost a family member? What if again zaboonam lal, one language learner had to be hospitalized for a disease; Or maybe simply because, universities opened and the time of their classes collided and a lot of other what ifs that could be valid reasons as to why the number of students who enrolled for the next term class decreased. Don’t get me wrong, the teacher may have been actually accountable, but this is only one of the many reasons this could have happened. Only because the fall happened after that teacher doesn’t mean they can be held responsible. As you can see, what we can learn in this fallacy is that the order of events doesn’t make it necessary for a cause and effect relationship to exist. Let’s hear another example. Our friend, Jamal lent his camera to his friend, Mike. When Mike returned Jamal’s camera, it was broken. Now, is it Mike’s fault that the camera is broken. Well, not necessarily. Jamal’s camera may have had a problem prior to lending it to Mike which Jamal may have been unaware of. It’s also plausible that the camera stopped working because of the natural wear and tear effect, you know. The thing is that before we can hastily pass judgments on Mike for having broken the camera, we need to find more evidence. Any conclusion drawn before having enough evidence at our disposal is potentially faulty. However, if Mike dropped the camera from a long height or if he left the camera in his living room while taking a shower with his son playing with the camera, it may as well be his fault that the camera is broken. In this case, you can demand that our Mikey pay for the damage. You can also see this faulty reasoning among politicians as is the case with many other fallacies. Listen to this scenario. It’s near the presidential elections, and a candidate says “our economic growth has dropped by 20%,” claiming it is clear that the current administration hasn’t done anything to build a good economy. But how much of the negative growth is the president and their team’s fault? Shouldn’t we first ask if the trend hadn’t started before they came to power? Could there be other reasons why the economy is on the verge of collapse? Has COVID had a part to play? How about many other factors that we might fail to notice? Now listen to this example. After roosters crow, the sun comes up. Therefore, roosters make the sun come up. It’s not so hard to refute the conclusion. However, there are superstitions that follow the same faulty way of thinking. When you see a black cat, bad luck is said to fall upon you that day. If a person had bad events coming to them after they saw a black cat, like having an accident or something, It’s best that they try to keep to the speed limit, or perhaps wear their seatbelt next time. If you had an argument with your better half today after seeing the black cat, leave the poor cat alone; it’s best that you go to a therapist to seek a real solution to your problem. They also say that a four-leaved clover brings good luck. If you see it, good things will happen. How can simply seeing a plant help your luck? If you got promoted at work the day you saw a four-leaved clover, remember coincidences. You probably earned it and your hard-work must have paid off. Sometimes we think that the world is trying to teach us a lesson. You have a fight with your mom and god forbid you shout at your mom. You leave the house, feeling guilty, and unconscious of your surroundings. You trip while crossing the street and land on a lit cigarette. You burn your hand. You think to yourself. See, Karma is at play. I upset my mom, my mom felt sad, in turn the lord was upset and this is how I’m being punished. I don’t think you can prove that. But a more probable cause is that you were simply so sad that you didn’t even see that your foot slipped when you walked on a banana skin. The thing is that the easiest explanation is not always the best or right one. However, not always is this way of arguing wrong, if you have enough evidence. For example, after I talk to you guys, I feel great. Talking to you guys makes me feel great. Well, after I analyzed the validity of this statement, I realized that it is, in fact, true. Well, the reason for this is because I know that I enjoy talking to an audience who is interested in learning English, and if you’re here with us on this channel, it means you actually love learning English, so you see, the statement is true. It’s awesome speaking with you. Oh before I say goodbye, coming up with rational, sound, and relevant arguments are what we are supposed to use in our writings. With awareness of this fallacy, you can make sure that you won’t be a victim of it, therefore improving your task response and coherence. I know some of you may disagree with me, but knowing the basics of logic and how to make a well-supported argument is necessary if you want to write, well. Learning fallacies can help you with rational thinking and as I said at the beginning critical thinking. Thanks for listening. Talk to you soon.

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post hoc is an episode from Lingo Phoenix's Podcasts.

This episode is 00:07:14 long.

This episode was published on Sep 2, 2021.

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