Next-Token Predictor Is An AI's Job, Not Its Species

I. In The Argument, Kelsey Piper gives a good description of the ways that AIs are more than just "next-token predictors" or "stochastic parrots" - for example, they also use fine-tuning and RLHF. But commenters, while appreciating the subtleties she introduces, object that they're still just extra layers on top of a machine that basically runs on next-token prediction. I want to approach this from a different direction. I think overemphasizing next-token prediction is a confusion of levels. On the levels where AI is a next-token predictor, you are also a next-token (technically: next-sense-datum) predictor. On the levels where you're not a next-token predictor, AI isn't one either.

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Next-Token Predictor Is An AI's Job, Not Its Species is an episode from Astral Codex Ten Podcast by Jeremiah Prophet.

This episode is 16:14 long.

This episode was published on Apr 2, 2026.

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