How We Thought the First Year Would Go

Listen to this episode commercial free at On January 28, 2025, I sat down with Aram Shabanian to talk about how we thought the first year of the Trump administration would go. I put the audio in a vault and didn’t listen to it until now. We focused on geopolitics and the American military and our hit rate for predictions was about fifty percent. Domestically, it’s been much worse than I expected. Abroad it’s been much weirder than I expected. The bit about America seeking violence though? Right now that feels spot on. Hegseth’s reforms got worse for women (vindicated) Conscription is not back (wrong) The yearning for violence when the gloves come off (vindicated) All the episodes that weren’t produced Sicarioifciation continues apace The bigger problem was that people felt bad The dangers of boredom “Drugs won the war on drugs and then looted the armories.” Against burning it all down Greenland is still on the table The ceasefire didn’t last and war did not spread to Europe (wrong) Elon Musk is out (vindicated) X is still around, but it IS producing on-demand CSAM (wrong?) WWIII and mass riots didn’t happen (wrong) Martin O’Malley 2028? The Cult of Sicario Support this show . Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

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How We Thought the First Year Would Go is an episode from War College by Matthew Gault.

This episode is 1:02:39 long.

This episode was published on Jan 16, 2026.

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