SI401: Why Trend Following Wins in Chaos ft. Nick Baltas

The world of systematic investing is evolving fast, and in this episode Nick Baltas joins Moritz Seibert to explore the explosive growth of QIS strategies, the current state of trend following in 2026, and the challenges facing systematic investors in today’s macro environment. They discuss crowding risks in quantitative strategies, the recent collapse in commodity curve carry, and why some trend managers continue to outperform through broader diversification and alternative markets. The conversation also dives into execution alpha, AI driven research workflows, inflation risks, and the ongoing institutional demand for systematic macro strategies. A sharp and highly practical discussion for anyone interested in trend following, QIS, commodities, and quantitative investing. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter , LinkedIn , YouTube or via the TTU website . IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here . And you can get a free copy of my latest book “ Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio ” here . Learn more about the Trend Barometer here . Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Nick on Twitter . Follow Moritz on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 – Introduction to the episode 01:17 – Nick Baltas on AI, research, and market volatility 03:02 – Trend following performance update for May 2026 06:25 – What investors are focusing on in QIS strategies 10:14 – Is there cyclicality in investor demand for QIS? 15:25 – Wall Street Journal article on the growth of QIS 17:15 – Crowding risks and overlapping systematic strategies 24:15 – Can hedge funds front run QIS trades? 27:46 – Commodity curve carry explained 30:48 – Largest drawdown ever for commodity curve strategies 33:59 – Is now the right time to buy commodity curve carry? 37:20 – Why some curve carry implementations still made money 40:01 – Trend following performance across alternative vs traditional markets 44:21 – Why broader trend portfolios may improve Sharpe ratios 47:22 – Listener question: Is there alpha in execution? 49:53 – How CTAs think about execution and slippage 53:50 – Why trend following on single name equities is rare 57:58 – Chesapeake’s single name trend approach 59:04 – Final thoughts and wrap up Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer

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SI401: Why Trend Following Wins in Chaos ft. Nick Baltas is an episode from Top Traders Unplugged with Niels Kaastrup-Larsen | Engaging Conversations with the Top Traders & Investors by Niels Kaastrup-Larsen.

This episode is 01:01:16 long.

This episode was published on May 23, 2026.

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