Prediction markets are making a 150-year comeback

Prediction market sites allow users to put money on everything from the war in Iran to the winner of the Super Bowl. But where did these markets come from? And what can that history tell us about where they might be going? Today on the show, how betting on popes and presidents long ago planted a seed for a “terrorism market” in the early 2000s, and how those early prediction markets shaped the industry that has taken hold today. Guests: Koleman Strumpf , economics professor at Wake Forest University Paul Rhode , economic historian at the University of Michigan. Robin Hanson , Associate Professor of Economics at George Mason University and systems architect for the Policy Analysis Market Robert Forsythe , Professor of Finance at Wayne State University and co-founder of the Iowa Political Stock Market To access bonus episodes and listen to Throughline sponsor-free,

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Prediction markets are making a 150-year comeback is an episode from Throughline by NPR.

This episode is 51:34 long.

This episode was published on May 21, 2026.

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