Episode 391: How Assumptions Shape Financial Planning Outcomes

Financial planning is built on assumptions — about markets, inflation, longevity, human behaviour, and even the questions clients bring into the room. In this episode, Ben and Braden welcome a diverse panel that originally came together at the FP Canada Conference to explore how those assumptions influence planning outcomes in practice. Joining them are Adam Chapman, a retirement-focused planner who helps clients turn their money into memories; Joe Nunes, an actuary with decades of pension and longevity experience; and Aaron Theilade, Director of Continuing Education at FP Canada. Together, the panel unpacks how to make assumptions credible, how to stress-test them, how to navigate client bias, and how planners can blend math with humanity to create better client outcomes. Key Points From This Episode: (0:00:04) Why this episode: recreating a conference panel on planning assumptions. (0:01:03) Braden on the panel's value for planners and DIY investors. (0:02:32) Meet the guests: Adam, Joe, Aaron, and Braden. (0:06:04) Assumptions matter: directional accuracy > prediction. (0:07:47) Actuarial view: start with inflation, bond yields, and risk capacity. (0:09:38) Engineering mindset: plan for expected and unexpected outcomes. (0:13:21) Client pushback: longevity surprises and hidden assumptions. (0:16:59) Asset allocation: strategic, goal-based, informed by behaviour. (0:20:57) Software limits: life is too variable for perfect modeling. (0:22:01) Behaviour gap: retirees spend less over time despite inflation. (0:25:18) Software guides; planners interpret and humanize outputs. (0:28:48) Use assumptions based on the specific question (e.g., withdrawals). (0:30:31) Always ask: "Why are we modeling this?" (0:34:15) Handling bias: reframe assumptions to reveal inconsistencies. (0:38:19) Assumptions evolve: returns, spending, and research all change. (0:42:38) Longevity beliefs: explore "why," not just the data. (0:50:38) Core truth: every plan is wrong — planning is iterative. (0:52:20) When to update: depends on age, goals, and material changes. (0:57:23) PWL approach: twice-yearly updates + adjustments during extremes. (1:00:03) Tips: focus on behaviour, communication, goals, and integration. (1:10:02) Success: relationships, impact, freedom, and sharing knowledge. Links From Today's Episode: Meet with PWL Capital: Rational Reminder on iTunes — . Rational Reminder on Instagram — Rational Reminder on YouTube — Benjamin Felix — Benjamin on X — Benjamin on LinkedIn — Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (

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Episode 391: How Assumptions Shape Financial Planning Outcomes is an episode from The Rational Reminder Podcast by Benjamin Felix, Cameron Passmore, and Dan Bortolotti.

This episode is 01:15:39 long.

This episode was published on Jan 8, 2026.

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