240: Thinking In Probabilities & Risk

Markets rarely behave as predicted by mathematical models, and extreme events occur far more frequently than traditional models anticipate. This episode explains why understanding probabilities, fat tails, and risk is essential for long-term success. We also explore how traders can build more resilient systems by focusing on recovery time, appropriate position sizing, and avoiding strategies vulnerable to black swan events. Discover why win rate alone can be misleading, and how expected value offers a more realistic framework for navigating uncertainty. Plus, Kirk shares how his own philosophy has evolved over the years and why automation can help enforce discipline and reduce emotional decision-making. See full show notes here

You can listen to 240: Thinking In Probabilities & Risk online on Radio and Podcast. Open the player on this page to stream the available audio.

240: Thinking In Probabilities & Risk is an episode from The Option Alpha Podcast by Kirk Du Plessis.

This episode is 55:00 long.

This episode was published on Dec 22, 2025.

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