Claudia Sahm: Thinking Through Scenarios in a Whiplash Economy

Our guest on the podcast today is Claudia Sahm . Claudia is chief economist at New Century Advisors , the founder of Sahm Consulting , and a regular contributor at Bloomberg Opinion . She has policy and research expertise in macroeconomics, consumer spending, and household finance. She created the Sahm rule , an automatic trigger for stimulus payments in recessions. Previously, she was a section chief at the Federal Reserve , where she oversaw the Survey of Household Economics and Decisionmaking . Before that, she worked for 10 years on the staff’s macroeconomic forecast. She was a senior economist at the Council of Economic Advisers . She holds a Ph.D. in economics from the University of Michigan and a bachelor’s degree in economics, political science, and German from Denison University. Episode Highlights 00:00:00 Lessons From the Fed During the Global Financial Crisis 00:04:56 Making Sense of Fed-Speak 00:09:29 The “Whiplash Economy” and Understanding Risk 00:14:21 Rising Gas Prices, Geopolitical Uncertainty, and Consumer Sentiment 00:18:03 Interest Rates, AI, and Fed Leadership Changes 00:29:48 Undoing the Effects of Trump’s Tariffs 00:33:34 The Sahm Rule and Recession Risk Today 00:43:56 Costs of Underfunding US Economic Data 00:49:57 “Economics Is a Disgrace” More From Morningstar Risk, Not Volatility, Is the Real Enemy for Investors Michael Gates: Why More Advisors Are Migrating to Model Portfolios Q2 Market Outlook: Why a Stock Barbell Strategy Is Ideal for Today’s Market If you have a comment or a guest idea, please email us at TheLongView@Morningstar.com . Follow Christine Benz ( @christine_benz ) and Ben Johnson ( @MstarBenJohnson ) on X, and Christine Benz , Amy Arnott , and Ben Johnson on LinkedIn. Visit Morningstar.com for new research and insights from Christine , Ben , and Amy.

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Claudia Sahm: Thinking Through Scenarios in a Whiplash Economy is an episode from The Long View by Morningstar.

This episode is 00:59:02 long.

This episode was published on Apr 28, 2026.

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