Trader Ferg: The Most Overlooked Commodities of the Iran War, ‘Worst Time Possible’ For Fertilizer

Stijn Schmitz welcomes back Trader Ferg to the show. Trader Ferg is a Full-time Trader & Author of the Trader Ferg Substack. In this wide-ranging discussion, Trader Ferg shares his insights on several critical commodity markets and geopolitical developments, focusing primarily on coal and corn as compelling investment opportunities. Regarding coal, Trader Ferg argues that the conflict in the Red Sea and disruptions to LNG infrastructure have created a structural shift that will drive thermal coal prices higher. He highlights the significant damage to LNG trains and the resulting long-term supply constraints, particularly for European energy markets. With European gas storage at historic lows and alternative supply routes limited, coal becomes an increasingly attractive alternative. Ferg expects thermal coal prices to potentially reach the low $200 per ton range, driven by Asian cooling demands and European energy needs. For corn, Trader Ferg sees significant potential due to fertilizer supply disruptions caused by conflicts in the Red Sea. The timing coincides with critical planting seasons, which could create acute shortages and price volatility. He prefers playing corn through options, citing the attractive volatility and low cost of entry compared to traditional equity plays. The conversation also explores broader macroeconomic trends, including the potential for gold to re-emerge as a settlement currency between nations. Ferg believes we’re witnessing an acceleration of de-dollarization, with countries like Russia exploring gold-based settlement mechanisms with Asian trading partners. On precious metals, Ferg remains bullish, viewing the current pullback as a temporary setback in a longer-term bull market. He anticipates continued inflationary pressures and potential monetary expansion will ultimately support gold and other commodity prices. Throughout the discussion, Trader Ferg emphasizes his investment philosophy of identifying underappreciated, cyclical commodities with structural tailwinds and asymmetric potential for significant price appreciation. Timestamps: 00:00:00 – Introduction 00:00:33 – Welcoming Guest Furgerskullen 00:01:05 – Spotlight on Coal Opportunities 00:02:03 – LNG Supply Disruptions Analysis 00:04:49 – Europe’s Russian Gas Ban 00:09:57 – Thermal Coal Demand Revival 00:17:15 – Fertilizer Shortages Hit Grains 00:23:12 – Precious Metals Bull Market 00:30:31 – Gold as Settlement Currency 00:32:50 – Platinum Group Elements Update 00:38:30 – Oil Market Dynamics Discussion 00:45:16 – Helium Export Vulnerabilities 00:48:40 – Concluding Thoughts Guest Links: Substack: X: Trader Ferg is a Full-time trader for going on 8+ years now. He has a habit of hanging out in hated corners of the market that are considered uninvestable. He enjoys sharing his research and thoughts about possible trades and markets.

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Trader Ferg: The Most Overlooked Commodities of the Iran War, ‘Worst Time Possible’ For Fertilizer is an episode from Palisades Gold Radio by Collin Kettell.

This episode is 49:40 long.

This episode was published on Mar 25, 2026.

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