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Listen to the latest insights from Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management to help prepare you for the week ahead.
In 19th century English novels, so-called “quarter days” often provided a chronological backdrop to the plot. A relic of medieval times, the...
On Tuesday, the Senate Banking Committee will hold hearings to consider the nomination of Kevin Warsh to be the next Fed chair. His confirma...
Evening newspapers, like vinyl records and rotary phones, are fading relics, all victims of the smartphones into which humanity is gradually...
A year ago this week, the President announced what he described as “reciprocal tariffs” on goods imported from all major U.S. trading partne...
In a speech last April, Fed Chair Nominee, Kevin Warsh, lamented the mission creep of the Federal Reserve as well as the Fed’s expanded bala...
One of the benefits of my marathon training is that, most weekends, I get to jog over the Newton and Wellesley hills with my running buddy,...
Three weeks ago, I wrote an article entitled Detangling Solution for the Economic Outlook in which I outlined a baseline forecast for 2026 a...
On Friday, the Supreme Court released a long-awaited decision, ruling that the President’s imposition of tariffs, using the 1977 Internation...
Between taking a shower when I get up in the morning and another when I get home from running, I am a significant consumer of detangling sol...
Last week saw dramatic moves in financial markets. Gold and silver, which rose very sharply last year and in January, suddenly lurched down...
On Friday, the President announced Kevin Warsh as his pick for Fed Chair. Warsh has a track record of hawkishness from his previous stint as...
Amidst a torrent of unsettling international and domestic events, the week ahead could be very consequential for the Federal Reserve. The FO...
Americans don’t like fruit cake. This issue comes up every December when Sari, having stolen the job from me, sets about making the family C...
Forecasting the economy right now feels a bit like trying to carve a path through thick jungle undergrowth on a foggy day. There are multipl...
The Red River of the North starts at the confluence of the Bois de Sioux and Otter Tail rivers and forms most of the border between Minnesot...
On Wednesday, the Fed will hold its last FOMC meeting of the year. Their actions and communications could move interest rates across the yie...
When I first arrived in America, America seemed to be all about cars. It was the early 1980s, and I had come over from Ireland to do a Ph.D....
I was watching a football game over the weekend and I saw a giant lineman go down. He was in obvious pain and hobbled, assisted and very slo...
In our age of overwhelming technological progress, I still cling to the simpler practices of my youth. I read books rather than tablets, wri...
I was rewatching Apollo 13 over the weekend - a fabulous movie, by the way, if you’ve never seen it - about how, in 1970, three astronauts r...
This quarter, we dropped the oil page from our Guide to the Markets. There are always exactly 65 pages in the Guide, so when we want to add...
One of the more challenging positions in football is that of place kicker for the visiting team. In theory, the job is simple – boot the bal...
As we enter the second week of the government shutdown, markets appear unconcerned. Last week, the S&P500 rose to an all-time record high, 1...
As I get older, my memory gets a little foggier. That being said, I believe it was at lunch at a restaurant near our office on Friday, March...
When engaged in the dark arts of foretelling the Fed’s words and actions, I have always adopted what might be called the “prudent economist...
Stocks rallied in the immediate aftermath of Friday’s dismal jobs report, with the S&P500 jumping 0.5% to an all-time high of 6,532 when the...
American summers, much more so than in the rest of the world, are defined by two bookends: Memorial Day and Labor Day. As a result, the firs...
On August 7th, with little fanfare, the IRS announced that, as part of its phased implementation of the OBBBA, it would not be adjusting W2...
One of the great challenges of modern life is avoiding distractions. In our daily lives, we are flooded by breaking news, music on planes, a...
The inflation temperature is about to rise. It should be a low-grade fever, triggered by tariff impacts but mitigated by low energy prices,...
This is a particularly challenging time to try to develop and present a balanced view of the economic outlook and its implications for inves...
For investors, the week ahead will be dominated by the Fed decisions. Possibly, some AI chatbot will spot the obvious grammatical error in t...
As you make your way through Terminal 5 in Heathrow airport, there are plenty of opportunities to buy a T-shirt bearing the slogan “Keep Cal...
Despite very significant shifts in U.S. economic policy and major geopolitical events, investors can look back at the first half of 2025 wit...
On Tuesday, we will release our third quarter 2025 Guide to the Markets. On Wednesday, we will host conference calls with financial professi...
Investors this week will be focused on the implications of the U.S. attack on Iranian nuclear facilities. While this is clearly a very signi...
When we bought our first home, the builder neglected to mention that it was built upon a river. Of course a river at the bottom of a garden...
When I was growing up, school holidays weren’t packed with organized activities. Sometimes, to relieve the boredom of a rainy day, I would t...
This week, after a very busy few months, I am putting down my pen, picking up my metaphorical spade and bucket and taking some vacation time...
There have only been two U.S. recessions since 2001 – the Great Financial Crisis and the Pandemic Recession. Both of these were huge – accou...
A crowd is gathered around the sickbed of the economic expansion. Among the multitude are the workers, consumers and business people who wou...
Last weekend, I neglected to finish my Notes on the Week Ahead as I got caught up in watching the Masters. In truth, it was mostly a battle...
One clear advantage of getting older, (and I can attest to many of its disadvantages), is that you learn from experience. The financial mark...
I may have mentioned this before, but as a young lad, I had a very healthy appetite. Consequently, when deciding on a hobby, I prudently ele...
I was running along the roads of our neighborhood last weekend when I came upon a small herd of deer. I often see these beautiful but dopey...
I was at a conference last week and a financial advisor asked me what I thought he should say when a client asked him what was so bad about...
In December, the Census Bureau announced that the U.S. population had grown by nearly 1% in the year ended July 1st, 2024, marking the stron...
In the four weeks since he took office, the president has issued an extraordinary number of executive orders, while promising dramatic chang...
For investors, Europe seems like a train in a station, perpetually gathering steam and loading up for a long-delayed journey, but clearly ad...
On Saturday, the White House announced the imposition of heavy tariffs on goods exported from Mexico, Canada and China and all three nations...