The Inflation Outlook and Fed Policy under New Leadership
Last Wednesday’s CPI report, while not a surprise, still showed a year-over-year inflation rate of 4.2% - higher than in any month since Apr...
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Notes on the Week Ahead
Listen to the latest insights from Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management to help prepare you for the week ahead.
Notes on the Week Ahead Podcast Guide
Listen to Notes on the Week Ahead, a Business podcast by Dr. David Kelly. Stream 341 episodes in English, follow new audio stories, and play episodes online on Radio and Podcast.
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20 of 341 episodesInvesting in a Divergent Economy
Two weeks ago, Sari and I took a vacation - an extended road trip down the East Coast as far as Charleston and then inland back to New York...
Five Scenarios for the Federal Debt
The Financial Accounts of the United States is a quarterly Federal Reserve publication containing a great many large numbers but very little...
Quarter Days and the Economic Outlook
In 19th century English novels, so-called “quarter days” often provided a chronological backdrop to the plot. A relic of medieval times, the...
AI, Inflation and Interest Rates
On Tuesday, the Senate Banking Committee will hold hearings to consider the nomination of Kevin Warsh to be the next Fed chair. His confirma...
The Latest News and the Economic Outlook
Evening newspapers, like vinyl records and rotary phones, are fading relics, all victims of the smartphones into which humanity is gradually...
The Receding Tariff Tide
A year ago this week, the President announced what he described as “reciprocal tariffs” on goods imported from all major U.S. trading partne...
The Investment Implications of Shrinking the Fed’s Balance Sheet
In a speech last April, Fed Chair Nominee, Kevin Warsh, lamented the mission creep of the Federal Reserve as well as the Fed’s expanded bala...
How Will It End?
One of the benefits of my marathon training is that, most weekends, I get to jog over the Newton and Wellesley hills with my running buddy,...
An Updated Outlook for the U.S. Economy
Three weeks ago, I wrote an article entitled Detangling Solution for the Economic Outlook in which I outlined a baseline forecast for 2026 a...
The Investment Implications of the Tariff Decision
On Friday, the Supreme Court released a long-awaited decision, ruling that the President’s imposition of tariffs, using the 1977 Internation...
Detangling Solution for the Economic Outlook
Between taking a shower when I get up in the morning and another when I get home from running, I am a significant consumer of detangling sol...
Real Economy Challenges
Last week saw dramatic moves in financial markets. Gold and silver, which rose very sharply last year and in January, suddenly lurched down...
The Federal Reserve – New Leadership, Same Landscape
On Friday, the President announced Kevin Warsh as his pick for Fed Chair. Warsh has a track record of hawkishness from his previous stint as...
The Direction of the Fed
Amidst a torrent of unsettling international and domestic events, the week ahead could be very consequential for the Federal Reserve. The FO...
International Equities: Looking Beneath the Currency Icing
Americans don’t like fruit cake. This issue comes up every December when Sari, having stolen the job from me, sets about making the family C...
A Baseline Forecast for 2026
Forecasting the economy right now feels a bit like trying to carve a path through thick jungle undergrowth on a foggy day. There are multipl...
Why Stocks are Outperforming the Economy
The Red River of the North starts at the confluence of the Bois de Sioux and Otter Tail rivers and forms most of the border between Minnesot...
Forecasting the Fed’s Forecasts
On Wednesday, the Fed will hold its last FOMC meeting of the year. Their actions and communications could move interest rates across the yie...
The Outlook for Autos
When I first arrived in America, America seemed to be all about cars. It was the early 1980s, and I had come over from Ireland to do a Ph.D....