Labor Market Mysteries
In a generally upbeat Jackson Hole speech on Friday, Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh asserted that “labor markets are consistent with full employme...
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Notes on the Week Ahead
Listen to the latest insights from Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management to help prepare you for the week ahead.
Episodes
20 of 350 episodesThe Road to $40 Trillion
Money was tight in our early married years. We bought a house we couldn’t afford, purchased a car we couldn’t afford and had all the expense...
What Lies Beneath: An Updated Outlook on the Economy and Investing
The summer of 2026 has been dominated by the AI boom. Some fear that AI is advancing too quickly for thoughtful regulation. Others worry tha...
The People versus Inflation
No one liked the defendant. That much was clear. But when the jury retired to consider their verdict, they hardly knew where to start. The c...
A Top Down View of the Earnings Surge
The earnings season has started with a blast. As of Friday morning, 49 of the S&P500 companies had reported second-quarter earnings, with 85...
The Fed Communications Debate: Bernanke Versus Warsh
Alan Greenspan, who served as Fed Chairman for almost 20 years, died last month at the age of 100. He was a talented and faithful public ser...
Consumer Sentiment and the Stock Market
Despite very average economic performance, consumer sentiment remains at extraordinarily low levels. While there are many interesting aspect...
The Healing of Housing
In the pantheon of running injuries, there is a well-established hierarchy. A recreational runner, finishing any marathon, or exerting thems...
The MOU and Warsh: A Changing Macro Landscape
Last week, as a frothy stock market continued to zigzag across a high plateau, two events occurred with significant implications for the mac...
The Inflation Outlook and Fed Policy under New Leadership
Last Wednesday’s CPI report, while not a surprise, still showed a year-over-year inflation rate of 4.2% - higher than in any month since Apr...
Investing in a Divergent Economy
Two weeks ago, Sari and I took a vacation - an extended road trip down the East Coast as far as Charleston and then inland back to New York...
Five Scenarios for the Federal Debt
The Financial Accounts of the United States is a quarterly Federal Reserve publication containing a great many large numbers but very little...
Quarter Days and the Economic Outlook
In 19th century English novels, so-called “quarter days” often provided a chronological backdrop to the plot. A relic of medieval times, the...
AI, Inflation and Interest Rates
On Tuesday, the Senate Banking Committee will hold hearings to consider the nomination of Kevin Warsh to be the next Fed chair. His confirma...
The Latest News and the Economic Outlook
Evening newspapers, like vinyl records and rotary phones, are fading relics, all victims of the smartphones into which humanity is gradually...
The Receding Tariff Tide
A year ago this week, the President announced what he described as “reciprocal tariffs” on goods imported from all major U.S. trading partne...
The Investment Implications of Shrinking the Fed’s Balance Sheet
In a speech last April, Fed Chair Nominee, Kevin Warsh, lamented the mission creep of the Federal Reserve as well as the Fed’s expanded bala...
How Will It End?
One of the benefits of my marathon training is that, most weekends, I get to jog over the Newton and Wellesley hills with my running buddy,...
An Updated Outlook for the U.S. Economy
Three weeks ago, I wrote an article entitled Detangling Solution for the Economic Outlook in which I outlined a baseline forecast for 2026 a...
The Investment Implications of the Tariff Decision
On Friday, the Supreme Court released a long-awaited decision, ruling that the President’s imposition of tariffs, using the 1977 Internation...