Markets Down, Recession Risks Up

Mark, Cris and Marisa recap the week’s events in the Middle East and at the Fed and debate whether or not the baseline forecast warrants a rethink given the rising uncertainty around how and when the conflict in the Middle East will end. The crew discusses the tumultuous week in financial markets, the impact that prolonged high oil prices could have on the U.S. economy, and what this means for the risk of a recession over the next year. They answer several listener questions on a wide range of topics. Participate in the weekly Survey of Business Confidence: For a deeper dive on AI and the macroeconomy, see our new paper, The Macroeconomic Consequences of Artificial Intelligence , where we model four potential economic paths over the next decade. We also walk through the scenarios in a companion webinar available now on-demand. Read the paper: Watch the webinar: Email us at InsideEconomics@moodys.com for more info about the Moody's Summit '26 Conference in San Diego Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s Analytics Follow Mark Zandi on 'X' and BlueSky @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn Questions or Comments, please email us at InsideEconomics@moodys.com . We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View . Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

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Markets Down, Recession Risks Up is an episode from Moody's Talks - Inside Economics by Moody's Analytics.

This episode is 00:57:08 long.

This episode was published on Mar 20, 2026.

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