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Join Michael Cembalest as he explores a wide variety of investment topics, including the economy, policy and markets jpmorgan.com/eotm
Salem’s Lot: an update on the Gulf War. Topics include international commodity price pass-throughs to the US, the limits of energy independe...
Fighting Words. This year we look at energy arguments, battles and debates: the impact of data centers on power prices, the cost of solar pl...
New York City now has one of the tightest housing markets since 1960. Watch the video
In this year’s EOTM Outlook by Michael Cembalest, we focus on four risks: US power generation constraints, China on its own, Taiwan and hype...
On the surface not much has changed since our last review two years ago. View video here
While the prior decade was defined by disruption in content distribution, the next decade will be defined by disruption in content creation,...
Mad Libs. This piece is not about how mad liberals are at the administration, although the latest polling data indicates that it could be. I...
In this piece, we look at the AI and data center takeover, and the OpenAI-Oracle deal; the US government equity investment in Intel, the ori...
Assessing US earnings and economic trends during one of the broadest policy shifts since FDR; partisan redistricting, the Supreme Court, the...
Every summer, I answer questions from the Eye on the Market client mailbag. View video here
Take a look back at 30 standout insights which are just as relevant for the future as they were for the past. Explore our insights
Throughout history, non-FDIC insured short-term dollar denominated debt redeemable at par on demand has been prone to runs, whether in money...
A brief note on the debt and deficit impacts of the House budget reconciliation bill, Henery Hawk and Foghorn Leghorn. View video here
With some kind of tariff equilibrium possibly within reach, we return to some regularly scheduled programming: artificial intelligence and l...
Like his predecessor Robespierre, Dogespierre (Elon Musk) also brought down the proverbial guillotine with indiscriminate cuts to Federal em...
Straight talk from the CEO front lines on Liberation Day. Almost all the news on tariffs and declining CEO business confidence that’s fit to...
Here’s the interesting thing about the stock market: it cannot be indicted, arrested or deported; it cannot be intimidated, threatened or bu...
Solar capacity is booming around the world, both utility scale and residential applications, and is often accompanied by energy storage whos...
From Here to Eternity: tracking Trump’s economic, market and constitutional milestones Whether you’re elated or despondent about the blizzar...
Trump 2.0 is a hodgepodge of distinctly American political strains: the bare-knuckled nationalism and anti-elitism of Andrew Jackson, the ta...
Deregulation, deportations, tariffs, tax cuts, cost cutting, crypto, oil & gas, medical freedom and Agency purges: What could possibly go wr...
I was visited by six ghosts recently warning me of dangers related to predictions, allocations, apparitions, legalizations, expurgations and...
A reflection on the 2024 election and who tells your story. On Trump’s victory: market implications of a supply side boost from deregulation...
For participants in the China equity rebound trade: once you hit your return targets, take the money and run. Click here to read the full PD...
Candidate policy comparisons in a historically polarized US Election; China stimulus package The US is about to conduct its most polarized P...
NVIDIA and its GPU customers are now a large driver of equity market returns, earnings growth, earnings revisions, industrial production and...
A surge in the Japanese Yen is resulting in home repatriation of Yen-funded positions overseas, and close-out of Yen-funded positions abroad...
From 1930 to 2010, there were six extended periods of small cap outperformance as it dominated large cap over that entire period. But since...
The Supreme Court vs the Regulatory State. Recent Supreme Court rulings may now usher in the largest pushback on the regulatory state since...
Investing in professional sports leagues and related businesses. As rules around private equity ownership of sports leagues expand, we revie...
With spring planting season having arrived in Zone 7, it’s a good time to review agriculture from an investor’s perspective. Topics include...
Cicadian Rhythms: the fading prospects of a US disinflationary boom; Japan’s structural reform/M&A emergence; and Eye on the Market mailbag...
The Good, the Bad and the Ugly: an investor lens on tech valuations, AI, energy and the US Presidential Election. View video here
This Eye on the Market is about the predominant vision for the future which involves the electrification of everything, powered by solar, wi...
Five Easy Pieces: on Magnificent 7 stocks, open source large language models, the No Labels movement, the Armageddonists and bottom-fishing...
This Eye on the Market is about all the things that can be true at the same time. The collapse of the political middle in Congress should no...
A top ten list on what might happen… not what will happen, in honor of strategist Byron Wien View video here
The impact of weight loss drugs on equity markets. View video here
Falling US inflation and possible Fed easing are increasing talk of a soft landing rather than a hard landing and bear market. Our 2024 Outl...
A review on industry returns in private equity, venture capital, hedge funds, commercial real estate, infrastructure and private credit View...
Six questions and answers on the intersection between geopolitics, US politics and financial markets View transcript View video here
Comments on NYC compared to 21 other US cities with respect to urban recovery, commercial real estate, mass transit, crime, outmigration, wo...
I asked Chat GPT-4 questions on economics, markets, energy and politics that my analysts and I worked on over the last two years. This piece...
Global resilience to higher rates View transcript View video and charts here
The impact of underperforming 2020 and 2021 US IPOs View transcript with chart references
Comments on mega-cap stocks and artificial intelligence. Then, it’s time for some of my unsolicited letters to Barron’s, MSNBC, “No Labels”,...
Time to retire the US/Emerging Markets barbell for a while View transcript with chart references
Before getting into the US$ discussion, three quick things. First, despite strong US data in Q1 and Q2, the US still appears headed for a sl...
Frankenstein’s Monster: banking system deposits and the unintended fallout from the Fed’s monetary experiment; commercial real estate, regio...
Renewables are growing but don’t always behave the way you want them to. This year’s topics include the impact of rising clean energy invest...