Is a Recession Coming? The Economist Behind the Most Accurate Indicator in History Weighs In

Oil prices have surged past $100 a barrel, three ships were struck near the Strait of Hormuz just yesterday, and the word "recession" is creeping back into the conversation. And we’re all feeling more than just a little bit anxious about what that means for our money. On this special bonus episode, Jean Chatzky sits down with Claudia Sahm, former Fed section chief, senior economist under President Obama, and creator of the Sahm Rule, a recession indicator that has been 100% accurate going back to 1959. Claudia breaks down exactly what's happening with oil prices and why it affects everything from your gas tank to your grocery bill to your retirement account. She explains what the Sahm Rule actually is, why she's cautioning people not to over-rely on it right now, and what she means when she says she just doesn't have "a good feeling" about this economy. Links mentioned: Claudia's Substack: Stay-At-Home Macro (SAHM) Claudia's writing at Bloomberg Opinion Join InvestingFixx — your first two classes are free! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

You can listen to Is a Recession Coming? The Economist Behind the Most Accurate Indicator in History Weighs In online on Radio and Podcast. Open the player on this page to stream the available audio.

Is a Recession Coming? The Economist Behind the Most Accurate Indicator in History Weighs In is an episode from HerMoney with Jean Chatzky by Jean Chatzky Her Money.

This episode is 30:23 long.

This episode was published on Mar 12, 2026.

Yes. Use the heart button on the episode page to add it to your favorite episodes list.

Yes. This page shows related episodes from HerMoney with Jean Chatzky when more episodes are available from the podcast feed.