Rear Window
Over the last year, the Eye on the Market included views on sectors, rates and currencies. For this back-to-school piece, I prepared a rear...
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Eye On The Market
Join Michael Cembalest as he explores a wide variety of investment topics, including the economy, policy and markets.
Episodes
20 of 105 episodesThe Year of the Trojan Fire Horse
The Year of the Trojan Fire Horse: China’s imbalanced economy and unrelenting mercantilism While there’s plenty of evidence to support Steph...
The Summer I Turned Pretty
I mean pretty as an adverb, as in pretty cautious on cyber risks, open and closed weight challenges to the frontier labs seeking to go publi...
Semiquincententacles
Semiquincententacles: The US grip on markets on the 250th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence Behold the Aquilaceph, half-bald ea...
Home Alone: inflation and the new Fed chair; investing in China’s AI ecosystem; Prediction markets
The new Fed chair Kevin Warsh, like Kevin McCallister in Home Alone, faces a lonely vigil: survive until the adults get home again. The late...
Abandon Ship!
Abandon Ship! Topics: midterm elections, Spring thaw in US economic data, Strait of Hormuz oil rationing timeline, AI and data center update...
Salem’s Lot: Gulf War update; the Purge of senior US military officers; a US fossil fuel reliance fever dream
Salem’s Lot: an update on the Gulf War. Topics include international commodity price pass-throughs to the US, the limits of energy independe...
Fighting Words: The Energy Transition in 2026
Fighting Words. This year we look at energy arguments, battles and debates: the impact of data centers on power prices, the cost of solar pl...
Supply and The Mam
New York City now has one of the tightest housing markets since 1960. Watch the video
Eye on the Market Outlook 2026: Smothering Heights
In this year’s EOTM Outlook by Michael Cembalest, we focus on four risks: US power generation constraints, China on its own, Taiwan and hype...
The Deep End: 2025 Alternative Investments Review
On the surface not much has changed since our last review two years ago. View video here
The winter of our discontent: generative AI disrupts the entertainment industry content moat
While the prior decade was defined by disruption in content distribution, the next decade will be defined by disruption in content creation,...
Mad Libs: just fill in the blanks
Mad Libs. This piece is not about how mad liberals are at the administration, although the latest polling data indicates that it could be. I...
The Blob: Capital, China, Chips, Chicago and Chilliwack
In this piece, we look at the AI and data center takeover, and the OpenAI-Oracle deal; the US government equity investment in Intel, the ori...
Fair Shakes
Assessing US earnings and economic trends during one of the broadest policy shifts since FDR; partisan redistricting, the Supreme Court, the...
Summer mailbag
Every summer, I answer questions from the Eye on the Market client mailbag. View video here
Time Flies: Twenty Years of Eye on the Market
Take a look back at 30 standout insights which are just as relevant for the future as they were for the past. Explore our insights
"OK Boomer" on stablecoins, profits, tax cuts vs tariffs and presidential break-ups
Throughout history, non-FDIC insured short-term dollar denominated debt redeemable at par on demand has been prone to runs, whether in money...
Chicken Hawks: a quick note on the US budget reconciliation bill
A brief note on the debt and deficit impacts of the House budget reconciliation bill, Henery Hawk and Foghorn Leghorn. View video here
Back to our Regularly Scheduled Programming
With some kind of tariff equilibrium possibly within reach, we return to some regularly scheduled programming: artificial intelligence and l...