#94: Nvidia’s Red Flags, NeoCloud Bubble & the Quiet Quant Crash

0:00 – Intro0:42 – Nvidia earnings: strong growth but odd details2:10 – Circular Nvidia deals: inventories, AR and “not-real” revenue4:40 – Retail mania: quantum computing, nuclear & Aussie drone stocks7:05 – When the music stops: 60–80% drawdowns in retail favourites9:05 – NeoClouds explained: ex-Bitcoin miners turned AI GPU landlords12:05 – Hyperscalers, Nvidia vs AMD and why GPU economics may crack14:00 – Gemini 3 vs ChatGPT & other models – real edge or hype?16:40 – How AI tools are changing developer workflows and markets18:20 – Frazis’ quant models, 73.5%/82% returns & trading the rips21:10 – CTA flows, max-long to max-short and a trillion in fast money23:40 – Discretionary stocks smashed: Chipotle, Six Flags, Nike & the consumer25:40 – Current positioning: cash levels, biotech pain & healthcare winners27:55 – Hunting the next leg higher: healthcare and niche AI stocks (Astera Labs, Credo, Nvidia)30:10 – Hims & Hers: stalled growth, GLP-1 price war & DTC disruption (Novo, Lilly)32:20 – Aussie small caps: DroneShield, Zip, Technology One & WiseTech34:05 – Software “strangle”: Salesforce, Atlassian, Wix and Figma vs Gemini35:40 – AlphaSense, Tegus, and why most “AI everywhere” UX is terrible36:45 – Australia macro rant: NDIS, housing, government stimulus & the AUD38:00 – Closing thoughts & watching for $100B+ of forced selling

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#94: Nvidia’s Red Flags, NeoCloud Bubble & the Quiet Quant Crash is an episode from Double or Nothing! With Michael Frazis and Misha Saul by Michael Frazis.

This episode is 00:38:36 long.

This episode was published on Dec 28, 2025.

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