Bitcoin Models Are Wrong… Here’s the Better Way

In this episode, Matthew sits down with Plan C for a deep dive into the evolution of Bitcoin power law modeling and why many commonly used assumptions may be flawed. The conversation centers on a critical distinction between calendar time vs protocol time, showing how Bitcoin’s early block production delays still distort traditional models today. The discussion expands into quantile regression vs OLS, where Plan C explains why Bitcoin’s skewed data makes median-based modeling more reliable than averages. He also introduces a newer concept around data weighting, suggesting that current models may overemphasize recent price action due to density bias, leading to unstable projections. One of the most impactful takeaways is how small modeling changes can lead to massive differences over time. Plan C demonstrates that long-term fair value projections could differ by as much as 50% depending on the methodology used, challenging widely accepted Bitcoin price expectations. Overall, this conversation reframes how serious analysts should approach Bitcoin’s long-term valuation. Follow Plan C on X: @TheRealPlanC Crypto Voices: Episode 198 Chapters: 00:00:00 - Refining Bitcoin Power Law Models 00:03:42 - Calendar Time vs Protocol Time in Bitcoin 00:06:18 - Calendar Time vs Protocol Time Regression 00:10:45 - Comparing Bitcoin Start Dates and Projections 00:12:56 - Protocol Time vs Calendar Time Analysis 00:25:44 - Protocol Time vs Calendar Time Analysis 00:35:15 - Protocol Time vs Calendar Time Analysis 00:38:55 - Quantile Regression Superior to OLS for Bitcoin 00:42:04 - Measuring Self-Similarity: Weighting and Time Scales 00:44:15 - Log-Time Weighting for Stable Power Law Regression 00:48:48 - Bitcoin's Scale Invariant Power Law Properties 00:52:34 - Comparing Regression Methods and Stability 00:56:18 - Protocol Time vs Calendar Time Differences 00:58:14 - Protocol Time vs Calendar Time Impact 01:00:44 - Decay Functions and Bitcoin Supply Modeling 01:04:19 - Building a Mathematical Model for Price Distribution 01:09:08 - Decay Functions vs Linear Quantile Regression Hosts: Matthew Mezinskis, Music: New Friend Music newfriendmusic.com/ Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay are appreciated: Show support appreciated: donations.cryptovoices.com Podcast & videos Bitcoin, privacy, crypto, economics & liberty Thanks for watching!

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Bitcoin Models Are Wrong… Here’s the Better Way is an episode from Crypto Voices by Matthew Mezinskis.

This episode is 01:12:48 long.

This episode was published on Apr 20, 2026.

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