Ep. 183: Hormuz—the new nuclear

Eight weeks into the US-Israeli war against Iran, the ceasefire is about to expire and the second round of negotiations is supposed to be happening this week in Islamabad. Darren uses the framework of “war-as-bargaining” to make sense of an extraordinary three weeks—the threats, the ceasefire, the collapse of the first talks, the blockade, Iran's brief reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and its near-immediate closure—and argues that the conflict has transformed Iran's strategic calculus in ways that make control of the Strait a functional substitute for nuclear weapons. The episode then works through what kind of deal is actually possible, why the Trump administration’s rejection of process makes that deal hard to deliver, and why the West more broadly is going to have to develop the psychological capacity to live with outcomes in which adversaries get to enjoy strategic successes. Darren finishes with a moral accounting of Trump's threats to annihilate Iranian civilisation, and a post-script on what he still believes despite it all. Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing by Hannah Nelson and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links Thomas Schelling, Arms and Influence (Yale University Press, 1966): Robert Pape, Bombing to Win: Air Power and Coercion in War (Cornell University Press, 1996): Mark Mazzetti, Adam Entous and Julian E. Barnes, “For Iran, Flexing Control Over Waterway Is New Deterrent,” New York Times, 18 April 2026: Josh Dawsey and Annie Linskey, “Behind Trump’s Public Bravado on the War, He Grapples With His Own Fears”, 18 April 2026: “Which Iran is America dealing with?”, The Economist, 19 April 2026: Barak Ravid and Marc Caputo, “U.S. considers $20 billion cash-for-uranium deal with Iran,” Axios, 17 April 2026: Phil Stewart, “Allies fear a rushed US–Iran framework deal could backfire, leaving technical deadlock,” Reuters, 19 April 2026: Fareed Zakaria interview with Ezra Klein, “Fareed Zakaria on the Moral Cost of Trump's War,” The Ezra Klein Show, New York Times, 10 April 2026: The West Wing, “They'll Like Us When We Win”: YouTube clip: Twitter handles of individuals mentioned: Danny (Dennis) Citrinowicz (@citrinowicz) Vali Nasr (@vali_nasr) Ali Vaez (@AliVaez) Robert Malley (@Rob_Malley) Dmitri Medvedev (@MedvedevRussiaE)

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Ep. 183: Hormuz—the new nuclear is an episode from Australia in the World by Darren Lim.

This episode is 65:31 long.

This episode was published on Apr 21, 2026.

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