Robin Hanson on Prediction Markets, Gambling, and the Future of Forecasting

Theo Jaffee and Sophia Puccini speak with economist Robin Hanson about prediction markets, gambling, and why he believes speculative markets are one of the most powerful tools humans have for aggregating information and forecasting outcomes. The conversation begins with Minnesota’s recent law criminalizing prediction markets before expanding into the broader backlash surrounding platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket. Hanson explains his long-term vision for “decision markets,” where markets could help guide choices made by companies, governments, and even individuals. Along the way, they discuss sports betting, games and human psychology, futurism, AI, and Hanson’s broader work on how societies misunderstand risk, incentives, and coordination

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Robin Hanson on Prediction Markets, Gambling, and the Future of Forecasting is an episode from a16z Podcast by a16z.

This episode is 00:27:55 long.

This episode was published on May 26, 2026.

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